Commercial real estate construction in the Golden State has been booming since 2011. However, the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson forecast survey found that industrial development in California is entering a cooling-off period. Given the growing impact of the e-commerce sector on the regional economy, we thought it’d be a good idea to check on upcoming industrial deliveries in the state. With the help of Yardi Matrix data, we bring you an overview of what’s in store for California’s industrial inventory in 2018 and which cities will add the most space to the market.
The Inland Empire Reigns Supreme
According to our analysis, over 17.8 million square feet of new industrial space is on track for delivery in 2018 in California. The vast majority of the upcoming inventory is concentrated in the Inland Empire, where projects due next year amount to a total of 16.9 million square feet. Outside of the Inland Empire industrial market, the Greater Los Angeles area is looking at just over 900,000 square feet of fresh industrial inventory next year, with new development focused in Torrance, City of Industry and Carson.
While the massive World Logistics Center waits to be built, Moreno Valley keeps churning out large-scale industrial product—nearly 3.7 million square feet of warehouse/distribution space is set to come online by mid-2018. Other California markets expecting industrial deliveries in excess of 1 million square feet next year include Perris, Rialto, and Chino.
Small-Box Inventory Makes Its Way to the Market
As import/export activity in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has surged, the real estate reaction has been proportional and immediate, according to recent JLL research. The report listed total vacancy at 3.5% at the end of Q3 2017, and the supply/demand balance hovering continuously near equilibrium. In keeping with this near-perfect balance, deliveries scheduled for 2018 address demand for product of all sizes.
More than 2 million square feet will contribute to the hot small-box segment of the market, with most buildings currently under construction as part of the Kimball Business Park in Chino and The Ranch in Eastvale. In the Californian sea of warehouse and distribution facilities, there is one manufacturing industrial property that is scheduled for completion next year—an 8-building, 158,000-square-foot complex located in Adelanto, within 15 minutes of the Southern California Logistics Airport.
Roughly 18% of the 2018 pipeline projects vary in size between 500,000 and 1 million square feet, including one of the few developments coming online next year on the Metro L.A. industrial market: the Bridge Point South Bay in Torrance.
Last, but not least, a total of 7 big-box industrial projects equal to or in excess of 1 million square feet are scheduled to come online next year, concentrated mainly in the Moreno Valley–Riverside area.
Riverside is Home to the Largest Projects of 2018
In terms of sizeable projects, it’s Riverside that takes the cake. The Lewis Group of Cos. will be wrapping up phase 3 of the Meridian Business Park, which consists of 2 massive buildings, each encompassing 1 million square feet.
Second place goes to the Optimus Logistics Center, a two-building Class A industrial project developed by The Rockefeller Group along the I-215 in Perris. Located approximately 70 miles east of the Ports of Long Beach/Los Angeles, the two distribution centers will encompass nearly 1.5 million square feet of fresh big-box industrial space. In the age of ever-faster e-commerce, Rockefeller is confident in the success of its speculative investment, which it estimates will provide over 20 million consumers with same-day delivery of goods.
Among the few 2018 deliveries to be located in urban areas is the 1-million-square-foot Goodman Commerce Center, currently under construction in Eastvale. The project is already leased to Amazon and builds on the long-term relationship between the Australian developer and the U.S. online retail giant. The Goodman Group has developed some of the largest e-commerce distribution facilities around the world. The Eastvale commerce center is only one of a number of projects in the company’s $2.3 billion U.S. development pipeline, which is expected to provide 17.7 million square feet of Class A logistics space to key markets like Inland Empire, Greater Los Angeles, Northern New Jersey and Central Pennsylvania. In total, the seven buildings that are under construction and due for completion in 2018 will more than double the Eastvale industrial inventory.
Methodology
Our analysis is based on Yardi Matrix data recorded up until November 15th, 2017, and includes all industrial projects equal to or in excess of 50,000 square feet and are currently under construction in the state of California, with completion dates scheduled for 2018.
